Rochester Turning on how to win the 56th

This is very good stuff.

In the 2006 election, Senator Robach won reelection with 50,411 votes (66%) to 26,434 (34%). His only opponent was Willa Powell, a weak Democratic candidate.

The four parts of the district voted as follows:

* The city was the only area that Powell won, and she received just 53%. Rochester cast 26,408 votes, or 34%, of the total number of 76,846 votes cast in this election.
* Robach won the town of Brighton- which cast 18% of the overall votes- with 60%.
* He was also the winner in Greece with a huge 81% to Powell’s 19%. Greece cast 41% of the votes.
* Robach won Parma by the same 81-19 margin in Greece. Parma voters cast just 7% of the total votes.

So Senator Robach won by a nearly two-to-one margin by doing three things: keeping it very close in the city, winning Brighton handily, and destroying his opponent in Greece and Parma (which together cast nearly half of the votes in the race).

What might happen in 2008? Each of the following scenarios assumes that the exact same number of votes cast in each of the four parts of the district that were cast in 2006 will be cast again in 2008. This is charitable to Robach, because it is very likely that Rochester’s- and possibly Brighton’s- share of the overall votes cast will increase in 2008 more than the increased turnout in Greece and Parma.

But let’s assume for the sake of simplicity that the exact same people who voted in this race in 2006 will vote again in 2008, with no more and no less.

Scenario #1: Dollinger wins Rochester with 60%, and Robach wins Brighton with 51%, as well as Greece and Parma with 70%. In that case, Robach will be re-elected by a wide margin, 56% to Dollinger’s 44%.

Scenario #2: Dollinger wins Rochester with 65% and Brighton with 54%, while Robach wins Greece and Parma with 65%. Then, Robach will still be re-elected, but by a much smaller 51-49.

Scenario #3: Dollinger wins Rochester with 68% and Brighton with 57%, and Robach wins Greece and Parma with 62%. Using those numbers, Dollinger would win the seat with less than 52% of the vote.

Conclusion: Of course those aren’t the only three possible outcomes, but for Dollinger to clinch the seat, he has to do three things: win by a 2-1 margin in Rochester; win Brighton by a double-digit margin; and make sure Robach doesn’t go much above 60% in the western towns.

The truth is that Robach is a formidable opponent and this race is far from over. In Brighton, which Dollinger has to win big, there are more Joe Robach lawn signs than I have seen in any of his previous elections and no Dollinger signs to be found anywhere. The Dollinger campaign has its work cut out for it and they should start spreading their message more. Speaking as a Brightonian myself, I will be going to their campaign office sometime this week to pick up some canvassing supplies and a few lawn signs to spread around my neighborhood. I encourage every progressive who lives in the 56th and who wants a Democratic majority in the State Senate to do the same.

Joe Robach pandering to gay people? Noooo.......

This is just too much, even for Joe Robach. Joe Robach is against marriage equality for gay people. But it's an election year and he needs every vote he can get. Look at this flyer that Joe Robach is sending out to gay communities in Rochester.



Rochester Turning sez:

This is a bit strange coming from such a noted opponent of gay rights. Residents of the Park Avenue and University Avenue areas of Rochester (sort of the Chelsea of Monroe County) received this mailer. Something tells me residents of Greece didn’t receive it.

The message is clear with the rainbow umbrellas, the two men embracing in the front. Robach is saying: ignore my record, I got you guys an arty bus stop!

Give Robach credit: he leaves no stone unturned in his efforts to pander to his constituents.

That man is shameless.

Finally! Joe "Missing in Action" agrees to debate Rick Dollinger on TV

At least that's what Robert Harding says:

After three would-be debates that turned into community town hall meetings, Democrat Rick Dollinger will finally get the change to debate with his Republican opponent Joe Robach.
It was announced today by Dollinger that Robach has agreed to a debate - a televised debate - on the Rochester ABC affiliate, 13 WHAM.

Today, Democratic State Senate candidate Rick Dollinger announced a major victory for voters as he learned that Republican Joe Robach had finally agreed, after numerous invitations, to participate with him in a debate on the issues that are critical to the future of upstate New York. Dollinger cited his persistence, and the growing unrest from within the community, as being the key reasons for Senator Robach ultimately agreeing to a debate. The debate will be hosted by Rochester's local ABC network affiliate 13 WHAM-TV.

"I am delighted that my opponent, Republican Joe Robach, has finally agreed to join me in a substantive public discussion," said Dollinger. "At last, Robach has realized that he has to account for his record, and has acquiesced to calls for a debate. This is a major victory for the voters who have continually been betrayed by Robach and his Senate Republican colleagues in Albany."

Dollinger continued: "Joe has been completely absent from the community and from this campaign for the last 3 months. As jobs continue to fly out of Monroe County and property taxes continue to skyrocket, our community deserves answers on what is happening in Albany to address the problem. Our community deserves a full public accounting of Joe's record in the New York State Senate and an explanation for his lockstep support of a failed Republican Majority".

This past Friday, Robach finally agreed to a debate on ABC network affiliate 13 WHAM-TV. In his comments on Friday Robach alluded to "several debates" that he had agreed to but failed to provide specifics. Recognizing the fundamental need for an extensive discussion on all the issues, Rick Dollinger has been vocally advocating the need for a series of six public debates. By participating in a series of 6 debates Rick Dollinger and Joe Robach would be providing voters the opportunity to clearly distinguish their platforms and agendas.

That last paragraph certainly catches my eye. If you have been following the debate challenges between Eric Massa and Randy Kuhl, you know that Kuhl has been saying he is willing to debate but there has yet to be a debate. So Robach saying that he has agreed to "several debates" is worth noting.

More details on the debate to come.

What took you so long, Joe? Finally starting to feel the heat?

Rick Dollinger Slams Robach in new TV ad

And it's good! The ad mentions the fact that Robach is staunchly against women's right to choose, supports shipping our jobs overseas and has voted with the GOP knuckleheads over 98% of the time. It calls him the "poster boy for the republican party".



That's a really good ad.

Another forum, still no Joe Robach

Joe "Missing in Action" Robach skipped another community forum last night, this one in Brighton. Once again, Robert Harding was there and has some really good video of Rick Dollinger speaking to the crowd. He had the stage to himself again. I guess it's understandable why Robach bailed on another of these debates. This one was all about reforming Albany.


Rick Dollinger - Reforming Albany Forum (Part 1 of 2) from Robert Harding on Vimeo.


Rick Dollinger - Reforming Albany Forum (Part 2 of 2) from Robert Harding on Vimeo.

Joe Robach's T-shirts made in Haiti and Mexico

File this under stuff you just couldn't make up if you tried. Joe Robach, the chair of the senate Labor committee and who is being backed by the Laborers International Union of North America, has campaign shirts that were made in Haiti and printed in Mexico.

I swear to god.

Also, "Missing In Action" Robach can also be called "Hecho En Haiti" Robach. I was sent an image of a Joe Robach for State Senate t-shirt (pictured at left) that had this tag on it (see right). Ordinarily, this would not be a big deal. By all accounts, it is a regular white t-shirt that Robach used and probably got it printed for cheap at one of the local printers.



If you go to Barack Obama's online store, you will notice a seal on the right-hand side of the page that reads, "Union/USA Made." You will also notice on the shirts that there is a union seal like this one. On Robach's shirt, there isn't one.



The problem with that is Robach's recent campaign finance filing shows that a number of different unions have invested in him. Laborers International Union of North America (Liuna) gave $1,000 to Robach, according to his disclosure report. I.U.O.E. Local 832 gave $3,000 to Robach. Robach has received tens of thousands of dollars from other unions that have a vested interest in keeping their jobs here in the United States. But Robach just showed them with a simple gesture that he doesn't care about their concerns.

And one more thing: Robach is the chairman of the New York State Senate Labor Committee. This is the man who heads up the Labor Committee and he is going around with campaign t-shirts made in Haiti and imported to Mexico.

Just another reason why voters in the 56th Senate District shouldn't vote for Joe "Missing In Action" Robach.

O.M.G.

Joe "Missing in Action" Robach Captured on film!

People are trying to say that Joe "Missing in Action" skipped another community form with Rick Dollinger. This simply isn't true. Here's proof!